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23 February 2010


Manganese outlook

Source: TEX

TEX reported that the pronoun of manganese metal produced in China to be consumed in the steel industry as called in the past several years was the metal, having fluctuated largely its price.

Although the quantity of electrolytic manganese metal produced in China has shared 95% of the world production, a depression of the world economy emerged in 2009 caused to change this volatility of price for Chinese electrolytic manganese metal to an extremely equal level.

A considerable differential of prices between higher one and lower one continued in 2007 and 2008 was in the range of USD 2,500 to USD 3,750 per tonne but a differential of these prices as seen in 2009 had shrunk to only USD 500 per tonne, because the prices in 2009 fluctuated to higher side: USD 2,850 (in December) and lower side: USD 2,350 (in May).

China exported 338,000 tonnes of electrolytic manganese metal in 2006, having reached a peak, but the exports of this metal from China decreased to 319,000 tonnes in 2007 and 305,000 tonnes in 2008, having still maintained a scale of 300,000 tonnes per annum. However, the exports of electrolytic manganese metal by China in 2009 decreased to 160,000 tonnes, which came down to nearly half of those in 2007 and 2008 as mentioned above.

Japan imported only 30,000 tonnes of electrolytic manganese metal in 2009, including 24,000 tonnes of Chinese product as shrunk to 1/4 of that (83,000 tonnes) imported in 2007 as a peak. This sharp decline in imports of Chinese electrolytic manganese metal into Japan is due to a change of raw material and blast furnace mills in Japan have shifted their usage from electrolytic manganese metal to super low carbon ferromanganese.

Following Japan, South Korea is the second largest country in Asia to import electrolytic manganese metal on a scale of 70,000 tonnes a year but anticipated to change this position from the second half of 2010. In order to produce special high grade ferromanganese in South Korea, POSCO has planned to construct a new plant in the site of the Gwangyang Works as a joint venture with Dongbu Metal and, in the same case as that in Japan, a reduction in consumption of Chinese electrolytic manganese metal in South Korea is thought to be inevitable to come up.

According to the data released in February by China Special Steel Producers Association, the output of crude stainless steel in China in 2009 reached 8.8 million tonnes, having had a remarkable increase of approximately 27% compared to that of 6.95 million tonnes in the preceding year of 2008. The stainless steel industry is one of main consumers of electrolytic manganese metal and, therefore, an increase of the domestic demand for this metal in China is supposed to have satisfied Chinese producers. The consumption unit of electrolytic manganese metal is larger for production of 200 series stainless steel, having shared 19% of the whole production of stainless steel in China. Reflecting a fall of nickel price, the output of 200 series stainless steel in China in 2009 decreased to 1.66 million tonnes by a decline of 4% from that in 2008.

The nominal capacity to produce electrolytic manganese metal in China is estimated to be 1,800,000 to 2,000,000 tonnes on an annualized base. Even if domestic consumption of electrolytic manganese metal in China could have increased to a scale of 600,000 tonnes per annum by means of utilizing an expansion in production of stainless steel as a following wind, it seems to be not easy to cover a considerable decrease of the exports. This is the reason, why the operations at Chinese plants to produce electrolytic manganese metal have fallen to a level of 50% on the average.

Following a raise of electricity fees in 2008, the Central Government of China has enforced from the 20th November of 2009 to raise again electricity fees by CNY 0.028 or 5% per 1 KWH. It is not negligible that the cost to produce electrolytic manganese metal in China has been increased by a raise of electricity fees.