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26 June 2009


Copper falls; investors mull data, China outlook

Source: Forex Pros

Aluminium stocks near record high again
* Copper seen coming under pressure
* China worries persist

Copper fell on Friday as investors looked beyond a batch of positive U.S. data and focused on signs consumers continued to be frugal, while weak metals market fundamentals also weighed on prices.

Copper for three-month delivery on the London Metal Exchange closed at $5,035 a tonne from $5,130 on Thursday. It traded in a range of $5,014 and $5,140, having earlier flirted with a one-week high.

"I think weaker demand and continuing production from mines is going to push prices down over the summer," said Charles Kernot, an analyst at Evolution Securities.

He added while hopes for an economic recovery are lending support to copper, he expects this support will fade when data starts showing a slowdown in Chinese imports.

China, the world's top consumer, has been aggressively buying copper, which has helped push prices up over 65 percent this year. Investors are starting to think the buying is unsustainable, however.

Data showing U.S consumers saved $768.8 billion in May dented sentiment as it sparked worries the economic recovery will not make much headway if consumers continue to be frugal..

The savings figure overshadowed a rise in consumer spending in May, an increase in personal income and a slightly higher U.S. consumer sentiment index.

"Personal income is only going up because of the fiscal impetus so personal income will come down again and we can assume the savings rate will carry on up because of huge debt. That's bad news as far as the recovery and any increase in metals demand is concerned," said Kernot.

Sentiment in equities and industrial metals had perked up this week on encouraging data, including a better economic outlook from the OECD and data showing U.S. durable goods orders rose unexpectedly.

CAUTION

But caution also set in when the U.S. Federal Reserve this week said the economy would remain weak for some time.

With the demand outlook remaining weak, analysts widely expect copper prices to flag in the coming months.

"As evidence of slower Chinese imports emerge we expect prices to come under further downward pressure, though downside potential is limited to the mid-$4,000s," Barclays Capital said in a note.

Among other industrial metals, aluminium, used in transport and packaging, closed at $1,647 a tonne from $1,684 on Thursday.

The demand outlook remained grim as stocks of the metal, injured by turmoil in the autos sector, jumped 20,500 tonnes to approach a record high near 4.4 million tonnes.

In industry news, a UK court awarded Hong Kong based commodities trading firm Noble $38 million in damages against an employee after losses arising from large speculative positions in aluminium futures.

For graphics on aluminium stocks, copper and zinc, click on:
http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/069/GLB_ALISTK2606.jpg
http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/069/GLB_CPRSTK2606.jpg
http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/069/GLB_ZNCSTK2606.jpg

Zinc closed at $1,581 a tonne from $1,643 and battery material lead ended at $1,715 from $1,738. Bucking the trend, nickel closed up at $15,800 from $15,625. Extending recent gains, it reached $16,098, its highest since early October.

Tin was last bid at $14,795 from $14,825. Tin slipped back into a backwardation of $70/120 -- a premium for cash material over the 3-month contract -- with investors eyeing potential tightness in the market as data showed 5 percent of total tin stocks being tagged for delivery.

Total LME stocks of tin stood at 16,995 tonnes while the tagged metal -- cancelled warrants -- stood at 860 tonnes versus 1,280 tonnes on Wednesday.

Metal Prices at 1617 GMT Metal Last Change Percent Move End 2008 Ytd Percent

move COMEX Cu 229.20 -0.80 -0.35 139.50 64.30 LME Alum 1640.00 -44.00 -2.61 1535.00 6.84 LME Cu 5040.00 -90.00 -1.75 3060.00 64.71 LME Lead 1705.00 0.00 +0.00 999.00 70.67 LME Nickel 15730.00 105.00 +0.67 11700.00 34.44 LME Tin 14575.00 -175.00 -1.19 10700.00 36.21 LME Zinc 1585.00 -26.00 -1.61 1208.00 31.21 SHFE Alu 13525.00 110.00 +0.82 11540.00 17.20 SHFE Cu* 40390.00 1080.00 +2.75 23840.00 69.42 SHFE Zin 13545.00 115.00 +0.86 10120.00 33.84 ** 1st contract month for COMEX copper * 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07